Human existence is based upon risk. People in all walks of life - politicians, scientists, business people, sports enthusiasts, even families - routinely face decisions which carry an element of risk. The ability to evaluate and control the level of risk entailed in these decisions is one of the fundamental tenets of modern society, yet from where did this phenomenon arise? This text charts the adventures of a group of thinkers who embarked on a voyage of intellectual discovery, transforming primeval superstition into the powerful tools of risk control employed today. Along the way, Bernstein encounters the questions which troubled some of the greatest thinkers in history, such as Pascal, Fermat, Bernoulli and von Neumann: To what degree should we rely on the past to determine the future? Which matters more when evaluating risk: the facts as we see them or the subjective belief in what lies hidden in the world of time? Have we replaced our blind faith in chance with an over-reliance on science? Table of Contents TO 1200: BEGINNINGS The Winds of the Greeks and the Role of the Dice As Easy As I, II, III 1200-1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS The Renaissance Gambler The French Connection The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man 1700-1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED Considering the Nature of Man The Search for Moral Certainty The Supreme Law of Unreason The Man with the Sprained Brain Peapods and Perils The Fabric of Felicity 1900-1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION The Measure of Our Ignorance The Radically Distinct Notion The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker DEGREES OF BELIEF: EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY The Failure of Invariance The Theory Police The Fantastic System of Side Bets Awaiting The Wildness Notes Bibliography Indexes